The parameter estimation method is the main method for estimating the cost of armament currently. As the international mainstream cost estimation software based on parameter estimation, the core parameter of TruePlanning software is Manufacturing ComPLeXity (MCPLX). Because this parameter cannot be accurately acquired in the early stage of armament development, TruePlanning software is difficult to be applied to the new armament in the early stages of development. Based on the performance parameters of armaments, a Partial Least Squares-Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) for MCPLX of the US fighter/attacker is established, and parameter estimation and testing are carried out. The results show that the proposed model has good fitting effect with the average relative error being 7.94%, and has high predictive ability with the average relative error of the test sample being 5.94%. The model can satisfy the requirements for estimating the cost of the new fighters/attackers in their early stages of development, opening up new ways for early-stage cost estimation of new armament development in China.
ZHOU Zhou
,
GUO Jilian
,
ZHOU Yijiao
,
SHEN Anwei
. Application of PLS-SEM in core parameter of armament cost estimation[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2018
, 39(3)
: 221705
-221705
.
DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2017.21705
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