ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA >
Reliability Model of Aircraft Structure Corrosion Based on Bayesian Updated
Received date: 2013-08-29
Revised date: 2013-11-28
Online published: 2013-12-17
Supported by
Special Fund of Civil Aviation of China of the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(3122013D004); National Natural Science Foundation of China (21303261)
The time-dependent nature in the development of civil aircraft structure corrosion and the limitations of sample collection have brought uncertainty to the distribution form and parameters of structure corrosion data. Therefore, an approach to select a reasonable distribution function and parameter estimation method is presented in this paper based on Bayesian formula. To meet the demands of the dynamic reliability management of aircraft structures in service, the dynamic forecast models are provided of the corrosion failure probability and the reliability of aircraft structures based on the Bayesian updating with the condition of new testing data being input constantly. The nondestructive testing data of floor beam structure corrosion in a civil aircraft are taken as an example, and the results show that the reasonable distribution of corrosion depth exhibits a Weibull distribution with two parameters, and the calculated reliability of the floor beam structure based on Bayesian updated corrosion failure probability is different from that without updating. It indicates that the updated reliability not only considers the priori information of the model parameters, but also uses the current data to update the forecast model timely, which can effectively reduce the uncertainty resulting from the limited number of samples. Therefore, the forecasts are steady, dynamic, and more in line with engineering practice.
Key words： aircraft structure; corrosion; uncertainty; Bayesian updated; reliability
ZHANG Chunxiao , ZHOU Meiyin , WANG Zhiping . Reliability Model of Aircraft Structure Corrosion Based on Bayesian Updated[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2014 , 35(7) : 1931 -1940 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2013.0477
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