Abstract: In view of the complex procedures, resource constraints, and uncertain activity durations of carrier-based aircraft deck operations, this paper proposes a proactive robust scheduling method of deck operations with uncertain durations to improve the robustness of fleet operation scheduling under cycle time constraints. First, the aircraft fleet operation is abstracted as a resource-constrained multi-project scheduling problem with uncertain durations, and a mixed-integer programming model is constructed after considering the constraints of time, space, and cross-coupling between multi-aircraft operation. Then, considering the characteristics of probability distribution of uncertain durations, a robust objective function based on comprehensive indicators such as the on-time completion probability, maximum completion expectation and variance of the fleet deck operation is proposed, and a proactive robust scheduling model for the centralized support is established. The three-stage robust scheduling generation mechanism and pre-constraint strategy (C^PC) are given, and an I-Memetic optimization algorithm combining dual-population Genetic operator and adaptive variable neighborhood local operator is designed. Finally, Monte Carlo simulation is used to verify the robust deck operation benchmark scheduling. Experiments show that proactive robust scheduling can better suppress the disturbance of uncertain activity durations during the deck operation cycle, and ensure the smooth operation with robust scheduling scheme. In the deterministic and robust scheduling simulation, the algorithm proposed is significantly better than other related intelligent optimization algorithms, and the C^PC strategy is the best one among the robust scheduling strategies.

Key words: carrier aircraft, deck operation, uncertain activity duration, robust scheduling, resource corstrained project scheduling problem, I-Memetic