Abstract: The frequent occurrence of man-made oil-stolen cases is one of the most severe threaten for the security of pipelines. The unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV) patroling system is able to monitor long-distance pipelines with high effiecne, dispite the varies terrain. Therefore, a probabilistic model on mathematic was established to quantify the factors that effect the detection probability; Methods that can boost the detecting probability was proposed; Calculation of detection probability in different model of patroaling scheme together with its combination were figured out; The method of scheme disigning was summarized with the cooperation of the UVA conceptual design, which is based on the task of mission. And finally, the optimal scheme were devised based on the detecting probability.

Key words: pipeline, detection probability, probabilistic model, UAV conceptual design, schematic design