动态失速是旋翼飞行器与风力机械工作过程中常见的非定常气动工况，其数值模拟结果在工程预测与机理分析中具有重要价值。然而当前多数研究仅通过单一模拟结果与实验数据进行比对，对各种数值参数导致的差异缺乏深入剖析，导致模拟结果的可靠性边界模糊，限制了计算流体力学（Computational fluid dynamics，CFD）方法从复现走向预测的能力。针对NACA0012翼型在深度动态失速状态下的俯仰振荡流动，评估并量化了由关键建模选择所引入的认知不确定性的影响。系统性地考察了网格类型、湍流模型、压力速度耦合方式及边界条件等关键参数所导致的模拟结果差异，并通过时间历程曲线、迟滞环图谱等方式评估了数值模拟与试验数据的一致性。结果表明，在合理配置建模参数的前提下，模拟结果可进一步逼近实验数据，尤其是在关键的失速涡演化阶段表现出更高的可信度。通过系统的参数组合与对比分析，总结出了一套具有较高稳定性和精度的数值模拟建模参考方案，并利用区间度量方法，为该基准算例的气动力系数确立了不确定度带，为后续动态失速问题的数值模拟研究提供实践依据。
Dynamic stall is a common unsteady aerodynamic phenomenon encountered by rotorcraft and wind turbines, and its numerical simulation is of significant value for engineering prediction and mechanism analysis. However, current research predominantly compares a single simulation with experimental data and lacks an in-depth analysis of the discrepancies caused by various numerical parameters, leading to ambiguous reliability boundaries and limiting the capability of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) to transition from a reproductive to a predictive tool. Focusing on the pitching oscillation of a NACA0012 airfoil in a deep dynamic stall state, the effects of epistemic uncertainty introduced by key modeling choices were evaluated and quantified. The discrepancies in simulation results caused by key parameters, including grid types, turbulence models, pressure-velocity coupling methods, and boundary conditions, were systematically investigated, and the consistency of the numerical simulation with experimental data was assessed using time-history curves and hysteresis loops. The results indicate that with a proper configuration of modeling parameters, the simulation can closely approximate the experimental data, exhibiting higher fidelity, particularly during the critical stall-vortex evolution phase. Through a systematic comparative analysis of parameter combinations, a modeling reference scheme with high stability and accuracy was established, and by using interval quantification methods, the uncertainty band for the aerodynamic coefficients of the benchmark case was established. This provides practical guidance for subsequent numerical studies of dynamic stall.
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