随着卫星星座技术在低轨通讯领域的发展，地球轨道上空间物体密度正在急剧攀升，导致在轨卫星发生碰撞解体概率风险不断增大。研究卫星解体后生成碎片云对低轨星座的碰撞风险，对保障星座的安全运行和轨道资源的持续利用具有重要意义。首先，论文提出采用概率法对碎片云密度演变进行解析预测。在此基础上，将积分形式的单个碎片对卫星的碰撞概率进行离散处理，进而用泊松分布计算所有碎片对卫星的综合碰撞概率。最后，将综合碰撞概率作为碰撞风险的评估指标，得到碰撞风险随时间的动态演变结果。仿真分析表明，碰撞概率随时间呈现周期性波动，每个周期内碰撞概率的极差逐渐缩小，整体呈现下降趋势。卫星解体对其轨道运行区域附近的影响，远大于对星座中其他轨道面上卫星的影响，且大偏心率星座构型受星座中解体影响更大。

With the development of satellite constellation technology in the field of low-orbit communication， the density of space objects in Earth orbit is rising sharply， which leads to the increasing probability of breakup events. To ensure the safe operation of the constellation and the sustainable utilization of orbital resources， it is of great significance to study the collision risk of the debris cloud generated after the breakup event to the low-orbit constellation. Firstly， the probabilistic method is proposed to analyze and predict the evolution of debris cloud density. On this basis， the collision probability of a single debris is discretized， and the Poisson distribution is used to calculate the combined collision probability of all debris. Finally， the comprehensive collision probability is used as the evaluation index of collision risk， and the dynamic evolution result of collision risk with time is obtained. The simulation analysis shows that the collision probability fluctuates periodically with time， the range of collision probability decreases gradually in each period， and the overall trend is downward. The influence of satellite disintegration on the vicinity of its orbit is much greater than that on other orbital planes in the constellation， and the configuration of the constellation with large eccentricity is more affected by disintegration of the constellation.