为了解决航空航天产品、造价昂贵的产品及高可靠性产品的可靠性评估,本文在无失效数据情况下,对液体火箭发动机进行了可靠性分析。应用E-Bayes(Expected-Bayesian)估计法,在有关研究的基础上,针对液体火箭发动机热试车过程中可能出现的无失效数据情况,确定了失效概率的先验分布,并给出了E-Bayes估计和多层Bayes(Bayesian)估计。然后用最小二乘法和加权最小二乘法给出寿命分布的参数估计,进而得到了可靠度的点估计和区间估计。最后结合实际问题进行了计算,说明了方法的可行性,且便于工程应用。
A reliability analysis of a liquid rocket engine for the case of zero-failure data is given in this paper to provide reference for the reliability evaluation of expensive and high-quality products such as those used in aviation and space travel. By means of Expected-Bayesian (E-Bayes) estimation, a prior distribution of failure probability is determined for the case where there is zero-failure data available in the trial run of the liquid rocket engine, and the E-Bayes estimation and hierarchical Bayesian (Bayes) estimation of failure probabilities are presented based on the related literature. After that the least square method and weighted least square method are used to obtain the parameters of life distribution and its reliability as well as the point and interval estimates. Finally, the calculated results of a practical problem show that the proposed method is feasible and convenient in engineering application.
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