ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA >
Parameter calibration and reliability analysis of an aero-engine rotor based on multi-source heterogeneous information
Received date: 2023-02-17
Revised date: 2023-03-20
Accepted date: 2023-05-04
Online published: 2023-05-06
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China(72271025);Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2023A1515011532);Aeronautical Science Foundation of China(2018ZC74001)
The accuracy of reliability analysis results of complex systems is closely related to the accuracy of input parameters. A stochastic model correction and parameter calibration method based on Bayesian maximum entropy is proposed to solve the reliability analysis problem containing multi-source uncertain information. By converting multi-source statistical information （such as moment information and reliability） into constraint conditions， this method transforms parameter estimation into uncertainty optimization problem. Further considering the mixed uncertainty， Wasserstein distance is introduced to construct the likelihood function， and the approximation algorithm is used to improve the computational efficiency. This method extends the application scope of classical Bayesian inference by adding "entropy term" and can deal with multi-source heterogeneous data and mixed uncertainty problems. A multi-state system reliability model based on survival signature was established for a multi-component aero-engine rotor system， and the reliability analysis was carried out by using the above method. Through comparative analysis， it was verified that the proposed method has higher accuracy and stronger robustness than the traditional method.
Lechang YANG , Chenxing WANG . Parameter calibration and reliability analysis of an aero-engine rotor based on multi-source heterogeneous information[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2023 , 44(23) : 228575 -228575 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2023.28575
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