Considering the randomness of working stress and residual strength, this article develops a stress-residual strength interference model for probabilistic assessment on damage tolerance of the aircraft composite structure. The stochastic factors including working stress, damage size, initial strength and fatigue limit of the composite helicopter horizontal tail structure are statistically analyzed. Based on the residual strength model considering the effect of damage size, the failure probability of composite helicopter horizontal tail structure is evaluated using the Monte-Carlo method. The results indicate that the proposed probabilistic damage tolerance assessment method for the aircraft composite structure is feasible. The effects of various stochastic factors during manufacture and service of the composite structure on residual strength are taken into consideration, which are consistent with the actual situation. It is found that the damage type and damage repair efficiency have significant influence on the failure probability of the structure. The through-thickness damage has more adverse effect on the reliability of the structure than the delamination damage. The failure probability of the structure decreases with the increase of repair efficiency.
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