基于贝叶斯网络和共因失效的飞机电源系统可靠性分析

doi:10.7527/S1000-6893.2019.23632

Abstract

Abstract: The redundant design in the aircraft power system increases both the reliability of the aircraft system and the probability of common cause failures. To accurately analyze the reliability of the aircraft power system, first, this study adopts the α factor model to decompose the failure rates of the common failure components, and the Bayesian Network (BN) to establish a reliability model of the power system considering the common cause failures. Then, comparative analysis of the reliability of the aircraft power system and its subsystems with and without consideration of common cause failures among redundant components is conducted. The results show a lower reliability of the obtained aircraft power system and its subsystems when the common cause failure factors among redundant components are considered than that without considering these factors, which is more consistent with the actual situation.

Key words: reliability, aircraft power system, common cause failure, Bayesian network, redundant components

CLC Number:

V242.2

KONG Xiangfen, WANG Jie, ZHANG Zhaomin. Reliability analysis of aircraft power system based on Bayesian networks and common cause failures[J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2020, 41(5): 323632-323632.

References 21

[1]	王莉, 戴泽华, 杨善水, 等. 电气化飞机电力系统智能化设计研究综述[J]. 航空学报, 2019, 40(2):022405. WANG L, DAI Z H, YANG S S, et al. Review of intelligent design of electrified aircraft power system[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2019,40(2):022405(in Chinese).
[2]	SARLIOGLU B, MORRIS C T. More electric aircraft:Review challenges and opportunities for commercial transport aircraft[J]. IEEE Transactions on Transportation Electrification, 2015,1(1):54-64.
[3]	冯正霖.以新发展理念引领新时代民航高质量发展[J].人民论坛,2019(5):6-9. FENG Z L. Leading the high-quality development of civil aviation in the new era with new development concepts[J]. People's Tribune, 2019(5):6-9(in Chinese).
[4]	蔡林, 张玲, 杨善水, 等. 大型飞机供配电系统可靠性评估与分析[J]. 航空学报, 2011, 32(8):1488-1496. CAI L, ZHANG L, YANG S S, et al. Reliability evaluation and analysis of power supply and distribution system for large aircraft[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2011, 32(8):1488-1496(in Chinese).
[5]	XU Q, XU Y, TU P F, et al. Systematic reliability modeling and evaluation for on-board power systems of more electric aircrafts[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2019, 34(4):3264-3273.
[6]	陈源. 基于模糊FMECA方法的飞机供电系统可靠性分析研究[D]. 成都:电子科技大学, 2011:22-41. CHEN Y. Reliability analysis of aircraft power supply system based on fuzzy FMECA method[D]. Chengdu:University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, 2011:22-41(in Chinese).
[7]	吕弘, 袁海文, 张莉, 等. 基于模式重要度的航空电源系统可靠性估计[J]. 航空学报, 2010, 31(3):608-613. LV H, YUAN H W, ZHANG L, et al.Aircraft electrical power system reliability estimation based on pattern importance[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2010, 31(3):608-613(in Chinese).
[8]	王学敏, 谢里阳, 周金宇. 考虑共因失效的系统可靠性模型[J]. 机械工程学报, 2005, 41(1):24-28. WANG X M, XIE L Y, ZHOU J Y. System reliability model considering common cause failure[J]. Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering, 2005, 41(1):24-28(in Chinese).
[9]	唐圣金, 郭晓松, 王振业, 等. 基于故障树的多光纤陀螺冗余系统可靠性分析[J]. 中国惯性技术学报, 2013, 21(2):259-263. TANG S J, GUO X S, WANG Z Y, et al. Reliability analysis for redundant system with multiple FOGs based on fault tree analysis method[J]. Journal of Chinese Inertial Technology, 2013, 21(2):259-263(in Chinese).
[10]	尹晓伟, 钱文学, 谢里阳. 基于贝叶斯网络的系统可靠性共因失效模型[J]. 中国机械工程, 2009,20(1):90-94. YIN X W, QIAN W X, XIE L Y. Common causal failure model of system reliability based on bayesian network[J]. Chinese Mechanical Engineering, 2009, 20(1):90-94(in Chinese).
[11]	李志强, 徐廷学, 安进, 等. 冗余系统共因失效动态贝叶斯网络建模[J]. 仪器仪表学报, 2018, 39(3):190-198. LI Z Q, XU T X, AN J, et al. Dynamic Bayesian network modeling for common cause failure of redundant systems[J]. Journal of Instruments and Instruments, 2018, 39(3):190-198(in Chinese).
[12]	赵峰,刘荣峥,梁丽,等.基于贝叶斯网络融合共因失效的接触网系统可靠性分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(5):61-67. ZHAO F, LIU R Z, LIANG L, et al. Reliability analysis of contact network system based on common cause failure of Bayesian network fusion[J]. Chinese Journal of Safety Sciences, 2015, 25(5):61-67(in Chinese).
[13]	HAUGE S, HOKSTAD P, HÅBREKKE S, et al. Common cause failures in safety-instrumented Ssystems:Using field experience from the petroleum industry[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2016, 151(7):34-45.
[14]	ZAHNG M, ZHANG Z J, MOSLEH A, et al.Common cause failure model updating for risk monitoring in nuclear power plants based on alpha factor model[J].Journal of Risk and Reliability,2017,231(3):209-220.
[15]	徐皑冬, 王宏. 基于差异化设计技术的安全仪表系统共因失效分析方法研究[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2013, 23(3):91-96. XU A D, WANG H. Research on common cause failure analysis method of safety instrument system based on differential design technology[J]. Chinese Journal of Safety Sciences, 2013, 23(3):91-96(in Chinese).
[16]	IVA B R, MARKO. An extension of multiple greek letter method for common cause failures modelling[J]. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2014,29(1):144-154.
[17]	MATTHIAS C M T, GERO W, DANA K. A robust Bayesian approach to modeling epistemic uncertainty in common-cause failure models[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2014,125:13-21.
[18]	高莺, 王巨汉, 张琦,等. 基于不同参数模型的安全计算机共因失效分数计算及比较分析[J]. 中国铁道科学, 2019, 40(3):137-143. GAO Y, WANG J H, ZHANG Q, et al. Computation and comparative analysis of common cause failure scores of safety computer based on different parameter models[J]. China Railway Science, 2019, 40(3):137-143(in Chinese).
[19]	张连文. 贝叶斯网引论[M]. 北京:科学出版社, 2006:34-44. ZHANG L W. Introduction to Bayesian network[M]. Beijing:Science Press, 2006:34-44(in Chinese).
[20]	尹晓伟,钱文学,谢里阳.系统可靠性的贝叶斯网络评估方法[J].航空学报,2008,29(6):1482-1489. YIN X W, QIAN W X, XIE L Y.A method for system reliability assessment based on Bayessian network[J].Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica,2008,29(6):1482-1489(in Chinese).
[21]	沈颂华.航空航天器供电系统[M]. 北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,2005:5-6. SHEN S H. Eleltrical power supply system for aerospace vehicles[M].Beijing:Beihang University Press, 2005:5-6(in Chinese).

Reliability analysis of aircraft power system based on Bayesian networks and common cause failures

PDF (PC)

Knowledge

Abstract

Cite this article

share this article

References 21

Related Articles 15

Recommended Articles

Metrics

Comments

[1]	Feng JIANG, Huacong LI, Jiangfeng FU, Linxiong HONG. A RBF and active learning combined method for structural non-probabilistic reliability analysis [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2023, 44(2): 226667-226667.
[2]	CHEN Zhiyuan, LI Luyi. Efficient methods for reliability sensitivity analysis of inputs with distribution parameter uncertainty [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(9): 325881-325881.
[3]	LI Xiaoyang, TAO Zhao, ZHANG Wei. Reliability modelling for fatigue based on uncertain differential equation [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(8): 225820-225820.
[4]	HE Yong, WANG Hong, LI Jing, QI Yankun. Joint decision making for condition-based maintenance and spare parts ordering of components based on vibration monitoring [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(5): 225304-225304.
[5]	LEI Shiying, SUN Jianzhong, LIU He. Cumulative damage index model and service reliability evaluation of turbine blade [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(3): 225064-225064.
[6]	WANG Tianshuai, HE Xiaofan, WANG Jinyu, LI Yuhai. Estimation method for DFR value of DED-TA15 titanium alloy based on bimodal lognormal distribution [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(3): 225013-225013.
[7]	ZHOU Chen, SHANG Bolin, SONG Bifeng, KE Erqin, WANG Yaozu. Contribution evaluation of aviation armament system-of-systems based on operation loop [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(2): 224958-224958.
[8]	KANG Rui, WANG Zili. Reliability systems engineering: A research review and prospect [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(10): 527505-527505.
[9]	CAI Ruiyan, LIU Yanhong, WEI Debin. k-terminal reliability analysis of satellite network based on QoS guarantee [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2022, 43(1): 326020-326020.
[10]	LIU Hao, WANG Hao, MENG Guanglei, WU Hao, ZHOU Mingzhe. Flight training evaluation based on dynamic Bayesian network and fuzzy gray theory [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2021, 42(8): 525838-525838.
[11]	SHI Jian, WANG Shaoping, LUO Xuesong. Multi-layer fault diagnosis of airborne system based on sensor uncertainty [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2021, 42(6): 624376-624376.
[12]	FENG Yunwen, PAN Weihuang, LIU Jiaqi, LU Cheng, XUE Xiaofeng, LENG Jiaxing. Operational reliability of aircraft power plant based on machine learning [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2021, 42(4): 524732-524732.
[13]	LI Jingkui, WANG Ying, WANG Bomin. Spoiler system reliability of certain electric aircraft based on Matrix-GO method [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2021, 42(3): 623945-623945.
[14]	JIA Beixi, LYU Zhenzhou, LEI Jingyu. Parameterized simulation platform of turbine cooling film blade life reliability analysis [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2021, 42(12): 224747-224747.
[15]	BAO Weimin. Space intelligent control technology enables launch vehicle to “self-learning” [J]. ACTA AERONAUTICAET ASTRONAUTICA SINICA, 2021, 42(11): 525055-525055.