为应对终端区不确定因素对航班实际到达时间的影响，提出了基于机会约束的进场航班随机规划调度方法，旨在实现调度方案的鲁棒性。首先，基于历史飞行数据，梳理刻画航班从进港点到起始进近定位点（IAF）的到达时间不确定性分布。其次，考虑不确定性分布，引入机会约束以限制违背间隔约束的概率，建立2阶段随机规划模型。其中，第1阶段针对进场管制，在IAF前完成对航班的预排序和调度，最小化序列长度和飞行时间；第2阶段针对进近管制，建立安全间隔，最小化延误降落跑道。接着，为满足进场运行实时性需求，引入针对随机规划的滚动时域控制（RHC）算法，利用样本平均近似（SAA）算法重构随机规划模型。最后，采用广州白云机场实际运行数据实施验证。验证结果表明，基于随机规划问题提出的RHC算法，不但可以保证解的质量，而且大幅提升了模型求解效率。此外，进场调度方案的鲁棒性提升显著，“一落一起”与“两落一起”2种运行模式下，针对着陆延误指标，采用先到先服务（FCFS）策略的结果分别是所提方法的6.1倍、9.6倍；针对航班违反间隔比例指标，采用FCFS策略的结果是20%和18.9%，而所提方法均为3.5%；针对序列交换次数指标，采用FCFS策略的结果为5.2次和5.6次，而所提方法均为0次。

To address the impact of uncertainties in the terminal area on flight arrival times， a two-stage stochastic programming method for arrival aircraft based on chance constraints is proposed to achieve robustness in the scheduling scheme. Firstly， based on historical flight data， the uncertainty distribution of arrival times from the entry fix to the Initial Approach Fix （IAF） is identified. Secondly， considering the uncertainty distribution， chance constraints are introduced to limit the probability of violating separation constraints， and a two-stage stochastic programming model is then established. The first stage pertains to approach control， flights are pre-sequenced and scheduled before reaching the IAF， so as to minimize landing sequence length and flight time； the second stage pertains to final approach control， safety intervals are established to reduce landing delays on the runway. Subsequently， the Rolling Horizon Control （RHC） algorithm for stochastic programming is introduced to satisfy the real-time requirements of approach operations. Then， the model is reconstructed and solved based on the Sample Average Approximation （SAA） algorithm. Finally， the proposed method is validated using actual operational data from Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport. The results demonstrate that the proposed RHC algorithm not only ensures solution quality but also significantly enhances model-solving efficiency. Moreover， the robustness of the approach scheduling scheme is improved under the “one landing， one takeoff” and “two landings， one takeoff” operational modes. For the landing delay index， the First-Come， First-Served （FCFS） strategy results in delays 6.1 times and 9.6 times higher than those achieved by the proposed method， respectively； for the violation of separation proportion index， the results of FCFS strategy rates are 20% and 18.9%， whereas the proposed method maintains a rate of 3.5% in both modes. Regarding the sequence exchange number， the results of FCFS strategy incurs 5.2 and 5.6 exchanges， respectively， while the proposed method incurs zero exchanges in both modes.