基于多源信息的隐含非线性维纳退化过程剩余寿命预测
收稿日期: 2022-06-22
修回日期: 2022-07-14
录用日期: 2022-08-15
网络出版日期: 2022-08-31
基金资助
国家自然科学基金(61703410);陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2022JM-376)
Remaining useful life prediction of implicit nonlinear Wiener degradation process based on multi-source information
Received date: 2022-06-22
Revised date: 2022-07-14
Accepted date: 2022-08-15
Online published: 2022-08-31
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China(61703410);Basic Research Plan of Shaanxi Natural Science Foundation(2022JM-376)
准确的剩余寿命预测对提高系统的可靠性安全性具有重要意义。在工程应用中，经常会遇到先验退化信息不完美或缺失的情况，且线性退化模型往往难以跟踪非线性退化特征。为解决这一问题，针对带测量误差的非线性退化系统，基于隐含非线性维纳退化过程模型，提出了一种合理融合失效寿命数据和多源信息的剩余寿命预测方法。首先，通过理论推导，得到了隐含非线性维纳退化过程的参数估计性质与退化数据之间的关系，为合理融合多源信息提供了理论依据。其次，根据参数估计的性质，分别使用现场退化数据和历史退化数据估计2种预测情况下的模型固定参数，并使用期望最大化算法将失效寿命数据信息融入退化模型中。再次，根据现场退化数据，使用Kalman滤波算法在线更新漂移参数。最后，通过仿真实验进一步验证了参数估计的性质，并通过2个实例验证了所提方法的优越性。
杨家鑫 , 唐圣金 , 李良 , 孙晓艳 , 祁帅 , 司小胜 . 基于多源信息的隐含非线性维纳退化过程剩余寿命预测[J]. 航空学报, 2023 , 44(12) : 227662 -227662 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2022.27662
Accurate remaining useful life prediction is of huge significance in improving the reliability and safety of the system. Practical engineering often encounters imperfect or scarce prior degradation information， with the nonlinear degradation characteristics difficult to track by the linear degradation models. To solve this problem， we propose a remaining useful life prediction method for nonlinear degradation systems with measurement errors by reasonably fusing failure time data and multi-source information， based on the implicit nonlinear Wiener degradation process model. Firstly， we obtain the relationship between the degradation data and the nature of parameter estimation based on the implicit nonlinear Wiener degradation process by theoretical derivation， providing a theoretical basis for reasonable fusion of multi-source information. Secondly， according to the nature of parameter estimation， we use the field degradation data and historical degradation data to estimate the model fixed parameters of the two prediction cases respectively and fuse the failure time data into the degradation model by the Expectation Maximization （EM） algorithm. Then， the Kalman filtering algorithm is used to update online the drift parameter based on the field degradation data. Finally， simulation experiments are conducted to further verify the nature of parameter estimation， and two practical case studies are used to verify the superiority of the proposed method.
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