The reliability systems engineering theory is a major theoretical and practical innovation in the field of reliability in China at the end of the 20th century. After over 30 years of development, it has been significantly refined and gradually become an important fundamental theory in the development of reliability technology and practice. This paper systematically reviews the existing reliability systems engineering theories, methods and techniques, and provides research foresight and future prospects for the development of theories and construction of new disciplines. Firstly, the origin and basic concepts of reliability systems engineering theories are reviewed, and the research methods of reliability systems engineering are introduced. Secondly, the technical framework and comprehensive integration system of reliability systems engineering are summarized, and the development process of reliability systems engineering is presented. On this basis, the latest reliability science achievement of the belief reliability theory is briefly introduced from the perspective of the evolution of reliability systems engineering to reliability systems science, and the validity of reliability science is analyzed philosophically. Finally, the development prospects of reliability systems engineering theory is proposed, and the bright vision of the new discipline of reliability systems science and engineering is foreseen.
[1] 《歼十飞机研制大事记》编委会. 歼十飞机研制大事记[M]. 北京:航空工业出版社, 2010. Editorial Committee of J-10 Aircraft Development Chronicle. J-10 aircraft development chronology[M]. Beijing:Aviation Industry Press, 2010 (in Chinese).
[2] 杨为民, 阮镰, 屠庆慈. 可靠性系统工程——理论与实践[J]. 航空学报, 1995, 16(S1):1-8. YANG W M, RUAN L, TU Q C. Reliability system engineering theory and practice[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 1995, 16(S31):1-8 (in Chinese).
[3] 杨为民. 可靠性·维修性·保障性总论[M]. 北京:国防工业出版社, 1995. YANG W M. General theory of reliability maintainability and supportability[M]. Beijing:National Defense Industry Press, 1995 (in Chinese).
[4] 康锐, 王自力. 可靠性系统工程的理论与技术框架[J]. 航空学报, 2005, 26(5):633-636. KANG R, WANG Z L. Framework of theory and technique about reliability system engineering[J]. Acta Aeronautica et Astronautica Sinica, 2005, 26(5):633-636 (in Chinese).
[5] 中国军事百科全书编审室. 中国大百科全书-军事[M]. 2版. 北京:中国大百科全书出版社, 2007. Chinese Military Encyclopedia Editorial Review Office. Encyclopedia of China-Military[M]. 2nd ed. Beijing:Encyclopedia of China Publishing House, 2007 (in Chinese).
[6] 康锐, 王自力. 装备全系统 全特性 全过程质量管理概述[J]. 国防技术基础, 2007(4):25-29. KANG R, WANG Z L. Overview of whole system, whole feature, whole process quality management of equipment[J]. Technology Foundation of National Defence, 2007(4):25-29 (in Chinese).
[7] 王靖, 康锐. 可靠性系统工程能力成熟度模型研究[J]. 航空维修与工程, 2008(3):63-66. WANG J, KANG R. Research of reliability-centered system engineering capability maturity model[J]. Aviation Maintenance & Engineering, 2008(3):63-66 (in Chinese).
[8] 邹勇, 潘星, 康锐, 等. 产品研制过程质量管理评价准则:Q/AVIC 09221-2012[S]. 北京:中国航空工业集团公司, 2012. ZOU Y, PAN X, KANG R, et al. Quality management evaluation guidelines for product development process:Q/AVIC 09221-2012[S]. Beijing:China Aviation Industry Corporation, 2012 (in Chinese).
[9] 王自力. 可靠性系统工程理论与技术[J]. 中国科技成果, 2015(8):51. WANG Z L. Reliability systems engineering theory and technology[J]. China Science and Technology Achievements, 2015(8):51 (in Chinese).
[10] 制造质量强国战略研究课题组. 制造质量强国战略研究·技术卷[M]. 北京:中国质检出版社、中国标准出版社, 2006:41-105. Research Group on Manufacturing Power Strategy of Quality. Research on the manufacturing power strategy of quality-technology[M]. Beijing:China Quality and Standards Publishing & Media Co., Ltd., 2006:41-105 (in Chinese).
[11] 康锐, 遇今, 余丽, 等. 制造业可靠性系统工程能力成熟度评价准则:T/CAQ 10109-2019[S]. 北京:中国质量协会, 2019. KANG R, YU J, YU L, et al. Evaluation criteria for maturity of reliability-centered systems engineering capability of industrial:T/CAQ 10109-2019[S]. Beijing:China Association of Quality, 2019 (in Chinese).
[12] 康锐. 确信可靠性理论与方法[M]. 北京:国防工业出版社, 2020. KANG R. Belief reliability theory and methodology[M]. Beijing:National Defense Industry Press, 2020 (in Chinese).
[13] 任羿, 王自力, 杨德真, 等. 基于模型的可靠性系统工程[M]. 北京:国防工业出版社, 2021. REN Y, WANG Z L, YANG D Z, et al. Model based reliability systems engineering[M]. Beijing:National Defense Industry Press, 2021 (in Chinese).
[14] WANG Z L. Current status and prospects of reliability systems engineering in China[J]. Frontiers of Engineering Management, 2021, 8(4):492-502.
[15] 钱学森, 许国志, 王寿云. 组织管理的技术-系统工程[N]. 文汇报, 1978-09-27. QIAN X S, XU G Z, WANG S Y. Technology for organizational management-systems engineering[N]. Wen Wei Po, 1978-09-27 (in Chinese).
[16] 宋广泽. 故障学初探[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 1983, 3(3):11-14, 19. SONG G Z. A preliminary investigation of fault science[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 1983, 3(3):11-14, 19 (in Chinese).
[17] 宋广泽. 工程故障学思辩[J]. 系统工程理论与实践, 1985, 5(2):19-27. SONG G Z. Engineering fault theory and practice[J]. Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice, 1985, 5(2):19-27 (in Chinese).
[18] 钟群鹏, 田永江, 张峥, 等. 机电装备失效分析预测预防进展:失效学体系的形成和发展(一)[J]. 理化检验(物理分册), 1999, 35(2):76-81. ZHONG Q P, TIAN Y J, ZHANG Z, et al. Progress in failure analysis, failure prediction and prevention of mechanical and electrical equipment:The formation and development of failurology (Part Ⅰ)[J]. Physical Testing and Chemical Analysis Parta Physical Testing, 1999, 35(2):76-81 (in Chinese).
[19] 钟群鹏, 田永江, 张峥, 等. 机电装备失效分析预测预防进展:失效学体系的形成和发展(二)[J]. 理化检验(物理分册), 1999, 35(3):114-118. ZHONG Q P, TIAN Y J, ZHANG Z, et al. Process in failure analysis, failure prediction and prevention of mechanical and electrical equipment:The formation and development of failurology (Part II)[J]. Physical Testing and Chemical Analysis Parta Physical Testing, 1999, 35(3):114-118 (in Chinese).
[20] ZENG Z G, WEN M L, KANG R. Belief reliability:A new metrics for products' reliability[J]. Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making, 2013, 12(1):15-27.
[21] LIU B D. Uncertainty theory:A branch of mathematics for modeling human uncertainty[M]. Berlin:Springer-Verlag, 2010.
[22] KANG R, ZHANG Q Y, ZENG Z G, et al. Measuring reliability under epistemic uncertainty:Review on non-probabilistic reliability metrics[J]. Chinese Journal of Aeronautics, 2016, 29(3):571-579.
[23] ZHANG Q Y, KANG R, WEN M L. Belief reliability for uncertain random systems[J]. IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems, 2018, 26(6):3605-3614.
[24] 李晓阳. 加速退化试验——不确定性量化与控制[M]. 北京:国防工业出版社, 2022. LI X Y. Accelerated degradation testing-The quantification and control of uncertainties[M]. Beijing:National Defense Industry Press, 2022 (in Chinese).
[25] ROCCHI P. Reliability is a new science[M]. Cham:Springer International Publishing, 2017.
[26] GNEDENKO B V, BELYAYEV Y K, SOLOVYEV A D. Preface[M]//Mathematical Methods of Reliability Theory. Amsterdam:Elsevier, 1969:v-vii.
[27] ZHANG J T, ZHANG Q Y, KANG R. Reliability is a science:A philosophical analysis of its validity[J]. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 2019, 35(2):275-277.
[28] 孙昌璞. 当代理论物理发展趋势之我见:杨振宁学术思想启发的若干思考[J]. 物理学报, 2022, 71(1):010101. SUN C P. My prospective on the contemporary trend of theoretical physics inspired by Chen-Ning Yang[J]. Acta Physica Sinica, 2022, 71(1):010101 (in Chinese).
[29] LIN K S, ZHU J X, CHEN Y X. A non-Hermitian quantum approach to reliability of a two-state system[J]. Physics Letters A, 2020, 384(10):126207.
CJA