针对国产平视显示系统（HUD）部分功能模块底层可靠性数据积累不足、难以支撑可靠性分析的问题，提出基于直觉模糊贝叶斯网络（IFBN）的平视显示系统多阶段任务可靠性分析方法。首先，研究基于贝叶斯网络的多阶段任务系统（PMS）模型构建方法，并综合考虑可能的共因失效影响；其次，研究基于直觉模糊理论的模糊事件失效数据评估方法，提出适用于航电设备的模糊区间划分方法及直觉模糊数与失效数据的转换算法，并采用基于Tω算子的直觉模糊数聚合算法，降低模糊累计；最后，以某型平视显示系统为例进行多阶段任务可靠性计算。所提方法为系统底层失效数据模糊情况下的可靠性分析问题提供支持。

Aiming at the problem that the bottom reliability data accumulation of some functional modules of domestic head up display system (HUD) is insufficient and difficult to support reliability analysis, a multi-phased mission reliability analysis method of head up display system based on intuitionistic fuzzy Bayesian network (IFBN) is proposed. Firstly, the modeling method of multi-phased mission system (PMS) based on Bayesian network is studied, and the possible CCF effects are comprehensively considered; Secondly, the fuzzy event failure data evaluation method based on intuitionistic fuzzy theory is studied, the fuzzy interval division method suitable for avionics equipment and the conversion algorithm between intuitionistic fuzzy number and failure data are proposed, and the intuitionistic fuzzy number aggregation algorithm based on Tω operator is adopted to reduce fuzzy accumulation; Finally, taking a head up display system as an example, the multi-phased mission reliability is calculated. The proposed method provides support for reliability analysis under the condition of fuzzy bottom failure data.