民机安全性分析的重要内容之一是系统运行过程分析，现有的运营安全性分析模型大多没有综合考虑人、飞机、运行环境等各类影响安全性的因素。本文综合考虑系统安全性分析功能间的时间、控制、资源、前提等影响，更加细致地分析影响系统安全运行的因素，建立了全面且规范化定量化安全性分析模型。运用功能可变性描述规则（RFV）、层次分析法（AHP）对功能共振分析法（FRAM）进行改进，建立民机系统安全性综合分析模型。使用模型还原143号班机安全运行所需条件，分析得出应重点防范的耦合变异与功能失效，且扩展了原事故调查报告结论，表明了该模型的可行性，提出的理论模型可为航空公司在运营系统安全性方面提供理论参考和技术支持。
Commercial safety analysis is one of the important components of system operation process analysis. However, the operation safety analysis of most existing models does not consider people, aircraft, operating environment and other influencing factors. Comprehensively considering the effects of system safety analysis functions such as time, control, resources, and premise, this article conducts a more detailed analysis of the factors affecting the safe operation of the system, and establishes a comprehensive and standardized quantitative safety analysis model. Using Rules describing Function Variability (RFV) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), we improve the Functional Resonance Analysis Method (FRAM), setting up a comprehensive commercial system safety analysis model. We employ the model to restore the required conditions for the safe operation of Flight 143, obtaining the conclusion that the coupling variation and functional failure should be mainly prevented. Additionally, the conclusions of the original accident investigation report are extended, demonstrating the feasibility of the model. The proposed theoretical model can provide theoretical reference and technical support for the safety of the operating system of airlines.
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