装备研制项目的模糊挣值管理方法
收稿日期: 2016-03-24
修回日期: 2016-10-08
网络出版日期: 2016-10-14
基金资助
国家自然科学基金（61601501）；陕西省自然科学基金（2014JM2-6095）
Method of fuzzy earned value management for weapon equipment development project
Received date: 2016-03-24
Revised date: 2016-10-08
Online published: 2016-10-14
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China (61601501); Natural Science Foundation of Shaanxi Province (2014JM2-6095)
由于装备研制项目广泛存在着技术风险，其预算成本难以用确定数描述，而现有挣值管理技术通常用确定数描述项目费用基线，忽视了项目的技术风险因素。为此，将技术风险引入挣值管理（EVM）方法，提出了一种装备研制项目的模糊挣值管理（FEVM）改进方法。该方法充分考虑了装备研制中的技术风险问题，利用技术成熟度（TRL）对项目计划成本进行估算，在此基础上，利用模糊数学理论，给出了一种基于可能度的高风险项目的成本和进度的模糊评价标准，并对项目的完工成本（ECC）和完工时间（ECT）进行了模糊预测。最后，通过案例对文中的方法进行了阐述。该方法针对装备研制项目技术风险大的特点，进一步拓展了挣值管理的适用性，对于决策者控制风险、保证项目的费用和进度具有一定指导意义和参考价值。
吴诗辉 , 解江 , 刘晓东 , 贺波 , 闫宝会 , 郭亚坤 . 装备研制项目的模糊挣值管理方法[J]. 航空学报, 2017 , 38(2) : 320258 -320272 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2016.0266
Since technology risk exists widely in the weapon equipment development project, it is better to describe the budget as fuzzy number. However, technology risk is neglected in the current earned value management (EVM), which often builds the baseline of the budget with crisp numbers. Therefore, we introduce technology risk to EVM, and propose an improved method of fuzzy earned value management (FEVM) for the weapon development project. The proposed FEVM fully considers technology risk during the project development, and applies the technology readiness level (TRL) concept to estimate the budgeted cost. By utilizing fuzzy theory, the fuzzy assessment standard based on degree of possibility for the cost and schedule of high risk project is given, as well as fuzzy prediction of the estimate completion cost (ECC) and estimate completion time (ECT). The proposed method is illustrated through an example. The proposed method extends the applicability of the EV techniques for the weapon equipment development project with technology risks, and can better help decision-makers to control risks and bring cost and schedule back to the baseline.
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