基于退化失效与突发失效竞争的导弹剩余寿命预测
收稿日期: 2015-05-11
修回日期: 2015-08-10
网络出版日期: 2015-08-18
基金资助
国家自然科学基金(61273058)
Remaining life prediction based on competing risks of degradation failure and traumatic failure for missiles
Received date: 2015-05-11
Revised date: 2015-08-10
Online published: 2015-08-18
Supported by
National Natural Science Foundation of China (61273058)
王浩伟 , 奚文骏 , 冯玉光 . 基于退化失效与突发失效竞争的导弹剩余寿命预测[J]. 航空学报, 2016 , 37(4) : 1240 -1248 . DOI: 10.7527/S1000-6893.2015.0224
In order to improve the accuracy of remaining life prediction for missiles, a prediction method, which is based on competing risks of degradation failure and traumatic failure, with the comprehensive utilization of the degradation data and failure time data of missile, is proposed. A condition space model is used to evaluate the degradation rate of the whole missile and then Gamma process is utilized to establish the degradation failure model. Assuming that the probability of traumatic failure depends on the degradation rate of the whole missile, Weibull distribution is used to establish the traumatic failure model. Finally the reliability model based on competing risks is set up. The application to a case validates the effectiveness of the proposed method. This study is of engineering value for accurately predicting the remaining life of missiles and performing condition-based maintenance.
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