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加速退化试验测量不确定度评定方法

郭宏轩,孙富强   

  1. 北京航空航天大学
  • 收稿日期:2022-04-01 修回日期:2022-05-26 出版日期:2022-06-08 发布日期:2022-06-08
  • 通讯作者: 孙富强
  • 基金资助:
    中央高校基本科研业务费

Measurement Uncertainty Evaluation Method of Accelerating Degradation Testing

  • Received:2022-04-01 Revised:2022-05-26 Online:2022-06-08 Published:2022-06-08
  • Contact: Fu-Qiang SUN

摘要: 受测量分散性、仪器误差等因素影响,加速退化试验中存在测量不确定性问题。本文提出了加速退化试验测量不确定度的传播与评定方法,以提高试验评估结果的准确性和可信性。首先,介绍了加速退化试验中的测量不确定度来源,并结合维纳过程加速退化模型参数估计过程分析了测量不确定度的传播效应;其次,分别利用测量不确定度指南评定法(Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, GUM)和蒙特卡洛法,量化评定了加速退化试验中性能观测数据测量不确定度对正常应力水平下产品可靠性评估结果的影响;最后,利用某型空间用高分子传感器加速退化试验实际案例验证了所提出的方法有效性,并对两种评定方法进行了对比分析。

关键词: 加速退化试验, 测量不确定度, GUM, 蒙特卡洛法, 高分子传感器

Abstract: Affected by measurement dispersion, instrument error and other factors, there is a measurement uncertainty problem in the ac-celerated degradation test. In this paper, the propagation and evaluation method of the measurement uncertainty of the accelerat-ed degradation test is proposed to improve the accuracy and credibility of the test evaluation results. Firstly, the paper introduces the sources of measurement uncertainty in accelerated degradation tests and analyzes the propagation effect of measurement uncertainty in the parameter estimation process of the Wiener process accelerated degradation model. Secondly, the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) method and Monte Carlo method (MCM) are used to evaluate the influence of performance observation data measurement uncertainty on product reliability evaluation results at normal stress levels respec-tively. Finally, utilizing an actual type of polymer sensors for space’ accelerating degradation testing, results of different methods are compared and the fitness of the proposed methods is verified.

Key words: accelerate degradation testing, measurement uncertainty, GUM, Monte Carlo method, polymer sensor

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